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Published and Accepted Papers

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Abstract: we show that the cyclicality of output growth is a sufficient predictor for the cyclicality of markups in models that micro-found variable markups through dynamic trade-offs. We use data on markups from the U.S. as well as survey data on firms' expectations from New Zealand to test the predictions of these models and find evidence in favor of their mechanisms. Finally, we study the implications of these mechanisms for cyclicality of markups in a calibrated general equilibrium model. In particular, we find that the degree of hump-shaped response in output is crucial for the direction of aggregate markup cyclicality.

Working papers

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Abstract: Governments frequently use proxies for deservingness—tags—to implement progressive tax and transfer policies. These proxies are often imperfect, leading to misclassification and inequities among equally deserving individuals. This paper studies the efficiency effects of such misclassification in the context of the property tax system in Manaus, Brazil. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in inequity generated by the boundaries of geographic sectors used to compute tax liabilities and a large tax reform in a series of augmented boundary discontinuity designs. We find that inequities significantly reduce compliance. The elasticity of compliance with respect to inequity is between 0.12 and 0.25, accounting for half of the observed change in compliance. A simple model of presumptive property taxation shows how mistagging affects the optimal tax schedule, highlighting the opposite implications of responses to the level of taxation and to inequity for optimal tax progressivity. Interpreting our findings through the lens of the model implies that optimal progressivity is around 50% lower than it would be absent inequity responses. These results underscore the importance of inequity for public policy design, especially in contexts with low fiscal capacity.

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Today's Bonus, Tomorrow's Budget: Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff in Performance-Based Transfers

Abstract: To improve service delivery, central governments often tie intergovernmental transfers to local policy performance. While such performance-based transfers can raise efficiency by incentivizing municipalities, they may also create equity losses by disproportionately rewarding high-capacity governments with larger transfers. We study this equity-efficiency trade-off using transfers to Brazilian municipalities. When two states tied transfers to relative educational performance, student test scores rose substantially: moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile of per capita conditional transfers increased scores by 0.13 standard deviations. However, the reform also widened funding disparities, as municipalities with higher pre-existing capacity received larger transfers. In contrast, contemporaneous reforms to unconditional transfers had negligible effects on student outcomes. A simple model of optimal transfers interprets these findings, suggesting that performance-based transfers deliver large efficiency gains, limited equity costs, and should constitute a sizable share of the optimal transfer mix. We find minimal evidence of multitasking distortions or score manipulation. Instead, we document increased education-related inputs and suggestive evidence of reduced corruption.

Work in progress

Quality Standards and Firm Behavior in Ethiopia

Location

420 W 118th St

New York, NY 10027, United States

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Contact

luigi.caloi@columbia.edu

(347)575-0365

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